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Fundamental
analysis is a method of forecasting the future
price movements of a financial instrument based on economic,
political, environmental and other relevant factors and statistics
that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies
the financial instrument.
In practice, many market players use technical analysis in
conjunction with fundamental analysis to determine their forex
trading strategy. One major advantage of technical analysis
is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market
instruments, whereas the fundamental analyst needs to know
a particular market intimately.
About fundamental analysis
There follows parts of fundamental analysis
will be described:
Forex economic indicators list
Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying
elements that influence the economy of a particular entity.
It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action
and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government
policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements)
within a business cycle framework.
Bearing in mind that the financial underpinnings of any country,
trading bloc or multinational industry takes into account
many factors, including social, political and economic influences,
staying on top of an extremely fluid fundamental picture can
be challenging. At the same time, you'll find that your knowledge
and understanding of a dynamic global market will increase
immeasurably as you delve further and further into the complexities
and subtleties of the fundamentals of the markets.
Fundamental analysis is a very effective way to forecast economic
conditions, but not necessarily exact market prices. However,
you'll need to come up with a precise method as to how best
to translate this information into entry and exit points for
a particular trading strategy.
A fundamental trading strategy (often used by online forex
traders) is also known as forex fundamental analysis. It is
made up of strategic assessments in which a particular currency
is traded on the basis of various criteria with the exception
of the price action. To these criteria belong current economic
conditions in the state that this currency represents and
a great deal of other elements essential for the subject.
Everything that is fundamental to economies should be regarded
as elements of fundamental analysis. Macroeconomic indicators,
such as economic growth rates, inflation, interest rates,
level of unemployment and other issues – all that is
relevant for a good forex fundamental analysis.
Online forex fundamental analysis focuses on the economic,
political and social powers driving supply and demand at the
market. Currency prices reflect the balance existing between
supply and demand for market currencies. There are two major
factors affecting supply and demand balance. They are interest
rates and the overall strength of the economy respectively.
Various economic indicators, such as GDP and others, are in
charge of reflecting the overall health of the given economy.
They are responsible for the changes that underlie in supply
and demand for a specific currency.
Online forex fundamental analysis may turn out to be a very
tense thing to deal with. When dealing with commodities, currencies
and some other so-called margined products it’s especially
obvious. The problem is that rather frequently online forex
fundamental analyses doesn’t provide entry and exit
points, so risk control may seem rather difficult, especially
when applying leverage techniques. Huge amounts of information
come out at regular intervals and only a part of it is of
some importance. The most closely analyzed data is the one
related to interest rates and international trade.
A trader who studies the markets using fundamental analysis
will generally create models to formulate a trading strategy.
These models typically utilize a host of empirical data and
attempt to forecast market behavior and estimate future values
or prices by using past values of core economic indicators.
This information is then used to derive specific trades that
best exploit this information.
Forecasting models are as numerous and varied as the traders
and market buffs that create them. Two people can look at
the exact same data and come up with two completely different
conclusions about how the market will be influenced by it.
Therefore is it important that before casting yourself into
a particular mold regarding any aspect of market analysis,
you study the fundamentals and see how they best fit your
trading style and expectations.
For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes
a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy
to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of
distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore,
it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors
to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive
list of all "The Fundamentals."
Fundamental elements:
I. The Basic Concept Of An Economy
The performance of an investment will be influenced by the
economy. The effects of inflation or deflation may interfere
with anticipated returns. Thus, the direction of the economy
must be considered when formulating an investment strategy.
A. The Business Cycle
The business cycle represents a repetitive succession of changes
in economic activity. The business cycle has four phases:
expansion (also called recovery), peak, recession (also call
contraction), and trough.
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In the expansion
phase, business activity is growing, production and demand
are increasing, and employment is expanding. Businesses and
consumers normally borrow money to expand, which causes interest
rates to rise.
B. Inflation
As the cycle moves into the peak, demand for goods overtakes
supply and prices rise. This creates inflation. During inflationary
times, there is too much money chasing more for their items
causing prices to rise. This, in turn, reduces the purchasing
power of the consumer.
As prices rise, demand slackens which causes economic activity
to decrease. The cycle then enters the recessionary phase.
C. Deflation
As business activity contracts, employers lay off workers
(unemployment increases) and demand slackens. Usually, this
cause prices to fall creating deflation. The cycle enters
the trough. Deflation is the persistent and appreciable fall
in the general level of prices. Eventually, lower prices will
stimulate demand and the economy moves into the next cycles,
expansion.
II. Gross National Product
One of the most significant measures of economic activity
is the Gross National Product (GNP). GNP is the total value
of goods and services produced by the entire US economy. Components
of the GNP include consumer spending, investments, government
spending, and net exports.
A recession occurs when Real GNP (Gross National Product adjusted
for inflation) has declined for two successive quarters.
III. Business Cycle Indicators
Economists use three types of indicators that provide monthly
data on the movement of the economy as the business cycle
enters different phases. The three types are leading, coincident,
and lagging indicators. For FOREX trading we will only look
at leading economic indicators that provide the greatest impact
on the economy.
IV. The Effect Of The Business Cycle On FOREX Market
As the economy moves through the different phases of the business
cycle, the FOREX market reacts to these changes. Investors
view these changes and take corresponding action, attempting
to take advantage of changes in the economy.
In the FOREX market, the US Dollar will move inversely to
interest rates. As interest rates increase, there will be
a drain on earnings, resulting in a decline in the US Dollar
Index.
V. Monetary Policy
Monetary policy attempts to control the supply of money and
credit in the economy. This will affect interest rates causing
an increase or decrease in economic activity. The primary
focus of monetary policy is the control of inflation.
VI. The Federal Reserve System
The Federal Reserve System implements monetary policy in the
US. An Act of Congress established the Federal Reserve System,
the nation’s central bank, in 1913. The Act divided
the country into 12 Federal Reserve districts. Responsibility
for coordination the activities of the district banks lies
with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington
D.C. The board has seven members appointed by the President
and confirmed by the Senate.
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