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The
introduction and availability of the FOREX
Market to speculating traders have made a huge impact
on the individual and on the market as well; with more investors
around, the more volume to exchange in the market.
For newbie investors, it is very important
to put some effort to understand the factors that may affect
the currency rates in the market. These factors have been
affecting the world's currency rates as well as the performance
of some country's exchange rates as well. It may sound daunting,
but investing on FOREX is one of the most stable forms of
financial businesses since it is the best financial market
due to its liquidity. Timing is the key to get a financial
gain at one's investment in the FOREX market.
What are the factors that may affect and
cause any change in the currency rates? As mentioned earlier,
the FOREX market is the most stable market, but other markets
that exist also affect the FOREX business. Stocks, for one
is a market that could directly affect a country's exchange
rate in different wave lengths, depending on the circumstances.
For instance, a multinational corporation invests a huge amount
for an offsite plant in a certain country. There is definitely
a huge impact on the host country's exchange rate, giving
it a direct gain.
Prices of goods also have direct impact on
a country's currency rate. Rich countries that are abundant
in sources such as oil and copper have long experienced the
growth in their economy. Being the main resource of oil, other
countries depend on the primary commodity that this country
has, but in return, these countries are also depended upon
for the economic impact they create.
A country's economic policy and status are
important factors that may affect its currency rate. The determining
factor of a country's economy is its financial stability that
is geared off the possibilities of debt and deficit. However,
nowadays many countries owe other wealthy countries in order
to survive. The government's policies for economic growth
and financial stability play an important role in order to
stabilize its currency as well.
For newbie FOREX traders, it is a must to
check on these direct-hitting factors for they pose much greater
risks on the business of trading currencies. However, there
is no reason not to trade currencies when these factors are
present; it is all a matter of planning and timing in order
to achieve one's objective of profiting.
Factors affecting currency trading
-: Although exchange rates are affected by many factors,
in the end, currency prices are a result of supply and demand
forces. The world's currency markets can be viewed as a huge
melting pot: in a large and ever-changing mix of current events,
supply and demand factors are constantly shifting, and the
price of one currency in relation to another shifts accordingly.
No other market encompasses (and distills) as much of what
is going on in the world at any given time as foreign exchange.
Supply and demand for any given currency, and thus its value,
are not influenced by any single element, but rather by several.
These elements generally fall into three categories: economic
factors, political conditions and market psychology.
Economic factors -: These
include economic policy, disseminated by government agencies
and central banks, economic conditions, generally revealed
through economic reports, and other economic indicators. Economic
policy comprises government fiscal policy (budget/spending
practices) and monetary policy (the means by which a government's
central bank influences the supply and "cost" of
money, which is reflected by the level of interest rates.
Economic conditions include:
Government
budget deficits or surpluses: The market usually
reacts negatively to widening government budget deficits,
and positively to narrowing budget deficits. The impact is
reflected in the value of a country's currency.
Balance of trade levels and
trends: The trade flow between countries illustrates
the demand for goods and services, which in turn indicates
demand for a country's currency to conduct trade. Surpluses
and deficits in trade of goods and services reflect the competitiveness
of a nation's economy. For example, trade deficits may have
a negative impact on a nation's currency.
Inflation levels and trends:
Typically, a currency will lose value if there is
a high level of inflation in the country or if inflation levels
are perceived to be rising. This is because inflation erodes
purchasing power, thus demand, for that particular currency.
Economic growth and health:
Reports such as gross domestic product (GDP), employment levels,
retail sales, capacity utilization and others, detail the
levels of a country's economic growth and health. Generally,
the more healthy and robust a country's economy, the better
its currency will perform, and the more demand for it there
will be.
Political conditions
-:
Internal, regional, and international political conditions
and events can have a profound effect on currency markets.
For instance, political upheaval and instability can have
a negative impact on a nation's economy. The rise of a political
faction that is perceived to be fiscally responsible can have
the opposite effect. Also, events in one country in a region
may spur positive or negative interest in a neighboring country
and, in the process, affect its currency.
Market psychology
Perhaps the most difficult to define (there are no balance
sheets or income statements), market psychology influences
the foreign exchange market in a variety of ways :
Flights to
quality: Unsettling international events can
lead to a "flight to quality" -with investors seeking
a "safe haven". There will be a greater demand,
thus a higher price, for currencies perceived as stronger
over their relatively weaker counterparts.
Long-term trends:
Very often, currency markets move in long, pronounced trends.
Although currencies do not have an annual growing season like
physical commodities, business cycles do make themselves felt.
Cycle analysis looks at longer-trem price trends that may
rise from economic or political trends.
"Buy the
rumor, sell the fact:" This market truism
can apply to many currency situations. It is the tendency
for the price of a currency to reflect the impact of a particular
action before it occurs and, when the anticipated event comes
to pass, react in exactly the opposite direction. This may
also be referred to as a market being "oversold"
or “overbought”.
Economic numbers:
While economic numbers can certainly reflect economic policy,
some reports and numbers take on a talisman-like effect -
the number itself becomes important to market psychology and
may have an immediate impact on short-term market moves. "What
to watch" can change over time. In recent years, for
example, money supply, employment, trade balance figures and
inflation numbers have all taken turns in the spotlight.
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